If you understand expected value but still struggle with one key question “how much should I actually bet?” then you’ve arrived at the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is not a strategy for picking winners. It is a mathematical formula used to determine optimal bet size when you have an edge. In other words, it answers …
Public betting percentages are one of the most misunderstood concepts in sports betting. You’ve likely seen them displayed on sportsbook dashboards or analytics sites: Many bettors assume that these percentages directly determine line movement. Others assume sportsbooks adjust lines simply to balance action. Both assumptions are incomplete. Public betting percentages influence markets but not in the …
The Kelly Criterion is often described as the “optimal” betting strategy. It is praised by professional gamblers, quantitative investors, and bankroll management experts as the most mathematically efficient way to size bets when you have an edge. But optimal does not mean simple.And it certainly does not mean risk-free. The Kelly Criterion can accelerate bankroll growth …
Sports betting and casino gambling are often grouped together. Both involve risking money on uncertain outcomes. Both can produce wins and losses. Both operate under regulatory oversight. But structurally, they are not the same. The differences lie in pricing, probability, edge creation, and the role of skill. Understanding those differences is essential if you want to …
The honest answer? It can be either. For most people, sports betting is gambling. For a small minority, it operates more like investing. The difference is not the activity itself it’s the approach. Buying a stock without understanding valuation is speculation. Buying it based on discounted cash flow analysis is investing. Sports betting works the same …
Short answer: yes. But not in the way most people think. You don’t beat sports betting by predicting winners better than everyone else. You beat it by understanding probability, pricing, and long-term expectation better than the market. Math does not guarantee you win tonight. It gives you a framework to win over hundreds of bets. That …
Sports betting feels simple on the surface. You study teams, follow injuries, watch games, and back the side you believe will win. When you cash a few tickets in a row, it reinforces the idea that you’ve figured something out. But over time, most bettors see the same pattern: brief upswings followed by steady losses. The …
Let’s be honest, most people who bet on sports don’t actually know whether they have an edge. They say they do. They feel like they do. They’ve “been watching the league for years.” But unless you can quantify your advantage over the price being offered, you’re not operating with an edge. You’re operating with hope. An …
Sportsbook odds are not “true” probabilities. They include vig (juice) the sportsbook’s built-in margin. To evaluate whether a bet is actually good value, you need to calculate the true odds (also called fair odds) by removing that margin. This article shows the exact process step by step, using simple formulas you can paste anywhere. What Are …
If you’ve ever placed a standard sports bet, you’ve already paid the vig—whether you realized it or not. The vig, also called juice, is the built-in fee sportsbooks charge for taking your wager. It is the primary way sportsbooks generate consistent profit. Understanding how vig works is essential because it directly affects: Without accounting for vig, …